2026 MLS Points Over/Unders
I joined Tom & Gass for in-depth 2026 prediction show on Soccerwise
If we were doing this for the NBA, NFL, MLB or NHL seasons we’d have just used the wins totals from a sportsbook and gone with that. And I’m sure if we were doing it for the EPL we’d have no problem finding points totals for the show.
But MLS doesn’t yet have that reach in the world of gambling. You can’t find any book that has preseason points totals, so… fine. I’ll do it myself:
Spotify link HERE if that’s your jam. A link will be coming soon on YouTube.
A note:
We did this about three weeks earlier than last year since Tom had to get it in before the baby came, so these numbers are already a little skewed. Portland, Seattle, Orlando… a bunch of teams have made big moves since we recorded. A bunch more will make moves before first kick.
With that in mind, I’m definitely going to revisit these numbers in the days before the season (which is coming up quick!) begins, and provide my final over/unders for 2026. I also intend, once Tom’s back in March, to do an “adjusted over/under” show on like Matchday 3 or whatever.
Our preseason coverage on MLSsoccer rolls on, and this week I’ll be publishing two new columns: the biggest tactical questions around the league (one column for the East, and one for the West). It’s something I’d thought about doing in the past but somehow never got around to.
Keep an eye out for those tomorrow and Thursday, and another newsletter on Friday.
Also… how many of you knew that the first competitive game for an MLS side in the 26 season – San Diego v Pumas in Concacaf Champions Cup – is tonight? 11 pm ET on FS2 & TUDN.
Day 1, late-night #MLSAfterDark for the sickos. No better way to start the year.
Would you adjust the combination of all lines for the future productions based on the expectations of how many draws we are going to have per season? Right now, all lines combine to around 13.5% of draws, which are extremely low. The combination of all lines in the previous seasons might have been way too high for the draw ratio too as well. I just can't dwell with the fact that we are asking for half less draws, and Tom and David are still giving more than 50% of overs. :)
Really solid work here. The fact that sportsbooks won't touch MLS points totals says alot about how unpredictible this league still is compared to EPL or even other North American leagues. I've found that midseason roster churn makes these lines way harder to nail than say NBA win totals, where the roster you see in October is mostly what you get in April. That San Diego lock is intresting tho given how expansion teams usually overperform expecations initially.