Preliminary regular-season predictions

Just to give you an idea of where my head's at

Don’t take these as hard-and-fast predictions for 2025, but rather an idea of what I’m seeing so far and my relative confidence level for these teams. The transfer window is still open for another two months, so a lot of this can change – some of it surely will.

But I figured it’d be worthwhile to get this down on paper (ink… er, pixels) now, then take a look in two weeks when I submit my official list to the gang at MLSsoccer.com

West Preliminary Predictions

1. Seattle Sounders: Most complete team. Question is top-end talent in biggest games.

2. LAFC: Still so much talent, with more to come in summer. Effective, if unglamorous soccer.

3. LA Galaxy: Have the pieces to make up for Riqui’s injury & enough cash to get a new, U22 No. 9.

4. Minnesota United: Building on last year’s momentum & CM upgrade (in theory).

5. St. Louis City: I’m buying their post-window improvement last year.

6. Houston Dynamo: Lost their two best players but core is still solid & game model is fun.

7. Austin FC: $30m front line, largely new midfield as well. Betting on talent + structure.

8. San Jose Earthquakes: A vote of confidence in Bruce, who’s pulled this trick before.

9. RSL: So many questions in the attack. Need Eneli to be special at d-mid, Luna to be special as the 10.

10. Vancouver Whitecaps: Lost continuity, lost depth, lost top-end talent. Bad combo.

11. Portland Timbers: Carried by the DPs last year. Minimal upgrades; regression seems likely.

12. Colorado Rapids: Fell apart post-leagues cup; not buying their defense or GK.

13. San Diego FC: Lots to like but defense & GK are worries, as is No. 9. Where’s the midfield chance creation?

14. Sporting KC: No defensive upgrades yet? Why??

15. FC Dallas: In midst of a complete teardown; Spoon favorites?

The one team I’m most worried about undershooting here is Colorado. On balance they had a good expected goal differential and good underlyings across the entirety of the regular-season. They added pieces across the backline, and there’s reason to hope for development from within (that was one of their successes of last season.

But this team was bad from mid-season onwards: 6W-10L-4D in their final 20 games across all competitions, with a -22 goal differential. Yeah, you could point to their Leagues Cup run and say “it’s because they were gassed!” but the fall-off started before the Leagues Cup. And if you’re worried about them being gassed, well, starting this season with Concacaf Champions Cup probably isn’t the greatest thing.

The flip side is I might be biting too hard on St. Louis’s post-window improvement, as well as Austin and San Jose’s big offseasons. All three of those teams were truly bad last year, and even with roster and coaching overhauls, it’s not wild to think they will be again this year.

East Preliminary Predictions

1. Inter Miami: Upgraded CB, RB, and overall depth. And they have Messi.

2. Columbus Crew: Quiet offseason, but should still be an elite team as long as the culture stays good (extend Cucho!). Do they need another CM?

3. FC Cincinnati: Two huge new additions (should they sell Lucho and get Evander). Excellent defense should keep them in top tier.

4. Charlotte FC: Core & defense are excellent; can top-end talent win big games?

5. Atlanta United: Still need DM & FB depth, but huge offseason acquisitions means top-end talent should work

6. Orlando City: Effective, under-the-radar offseason if Atuesta & Pasalic arrive; need MF depth.

7. Chicago: Finally looks solid, and potentially more than that if Bamba cooks.

8. RBNY: Didn’t do enough to climb; still too proven to drop.

9. NYCFC: Can young attackers improve? Will Martinez replicate 2024 numbers? No Sands hurts. Who’s the d-mid?

10. New England Revolution: Lots of potential roster upgrades; lots of uncertainty.

11. CF Montreal: Can they get more chance creation out of midfield? Will all the kids improve?

12. Nashville SC: Aging backline, huge questions in CM, and – scariest of them all – attacking talisman in decline?

13. Philadelphia Union: Going all-in on the Energy Drink Soccer game model (and the kids).

14. D.C. United: One Benteke injury from a 20-point season, maybe?

15. Toronto FC: Old & slow at CB; bereft in MF; just Bernardeschi in attack. Ugh.

Look, even though J. Sam Jones just wrote 8000 words about Atlanta’s sports science department and how they’re going to give Miguel Almiron hamstrings of steel, I’m still worried about the 31-year-old’s long-term health. Ronny Deila will have to manage his minutes if Atlanta’s going to climb into the top five, as I’ve got them here.

The other team I could obviously eat shit on is the Fire. But I really do think that Gregg Berhalter will straighten out the defense, and from there the talent in attack should be good enough to get this team into the playoffs.

Who am I too low on? Maybe the Red Bulls. Emil Forsberg’s gonna have a full offseason of rest, which means he’ll likely play more in the regular-season, which means they could very well climb into the top 4 in the East. That number gets higher if they go out and make an ambitious signing this window, but… yeah. Been saying that twice annually for a decade.

I really want to believe in Montreal and Philly because I love the emphasis on developing domestic talent, but man I don’t know. Gonna have to be “prove it” seasons from both teams.

Anyway, as I said at this top, this will likely change a bit in the weeks to come. But this is what I’ve got for now.