2025 MLS Points Over/Unders

My first (of many) post-ETR Soccerwise appearance

Before we get into the post, note that this is the week of First Kick, so there’s going to be A LOT of content coming here over the next few days since I’ve been cranking on the stretch-run of season preview stuff. And as a matter of fact, that includes the big, old MLSsoccer team-by-team season preview compendium.

• Official 2025 MLS Season Previews

I’m going to write up my thoughts about those tomorrow, as well as my Shield/Cup/MVP/Boot/Young Player of the Year predictions. And then my annual Tiers piece is coming to MLSs on Wednesday.

So, you know, I’ve been busy. Check that email.

Anyway, late last week I hopped on Soccerwise to talk the upcoming season with Tommy Scoops & the Gass-Man (in my head-canon “Tommy Scoops & the Gass-Man” is their alternate universe drive-time radio brand, a la Mike & the Mad Dog. WFAN are you listening???). I set a line for each team and we took our crack at predicting the over/under.

If we were doing this for the NBA, NFL, MLB or NHL seasons we’d have just used the wins totals from sportsbooks and gone with that. And I’m sure if we were doing it for the EPL we’d have no problem finding points totals for the show.

But MLS is still not at that level, at least in the world of gambling. You can’t find any book that has preseason points totals, and believe me we looked (and that includes asking a buddy of ours who works at BetMGM; no luck).

So I, with some help from Producent Anders and the rocket surgeons at AmericanSoccerAnalysis, came up with my own lines. Which was incredibly fun¹. It gave us the chance to dive in for almost two hours, and to be honest we could easily have gone for two more.

Anyway, you can hear the original lines in the show, and our picks (which you can also see laid out all pretty right here). But as there’s been a bunch of roster changes in the past five days, I’ve had to adjust some of those over/unders². The new versions are below:

1. Inter Miami: 65.5

2. Seattle Sounders: 60.5

3. FC Cincinnati: 60.5

4. LAFC: 58.5

5. LA Galaxy: 54.5

6. Atlanta United: 54.5

7. Columbus Crew: 54.5

8. Minnesota United: 53.5

9. New York Red Bulls: 52.5

10. Charlotte FC: 52.5

11. Orlando City: 51.5

12. NYCFC: 47.5

13. Colorado Rapids: 47.5

14. Austin FC: 46.5

15. St. Louis City: 45.5

16. Portland Timbers: 45.5

17. Vancouver Whitecaps: 45.5

18. Real Salt Lake: 44.5

19. FC Dallas: 44.5

20. Chicago Fire: 43.5

21. Houston Dynamo: 42.5

22. CF Montreal: 42.5

23. Nashville SC: 41.5

24. New England Revolution: 41.5

25. Philadelphia Union: 41.5

26. San Jose Earthquakes: 38.5

27. San Diego FC: 37.5

28. Sporting KC: 37.5

29. D.C. United: 36.5

30. Toronto FC: 31.5

I moved the Sounders, Cincy, LAFC and the Crew up a bit (the Crew could jump more if they get the Flaco Lopez deal across the line; Taylor Twellman hinted on Friday’s Miami/Orlando preseason stream that it was close, and reports out of South America agree).

I had to drop Houston a bunch, as they’ve just lost too much of their spine, and I lowered NYCFC a bit as well. The Pigeons have to sell Santi Rodriguez if they’re really looking at a $17m offer – it’s just good (great) business³ – but it’ll make it harder to collect points out of the gates this year.

Toronto FC also dropped a couple of points. I just… man, that roster is grim. Even with their new center forward signing.

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Ok, one other programming note: I’ll be back on Soccerwise this coming Thursday, along with Wiebe and hopefully Calen and Anders, to do our annual Golden Boot draft. It was a staple of ETR, so its new home is obvious.

And now a few recommendations:

• Joe Lowery and the gang over at Backheeled have done an incredible job putting together comprehensive, team-by-team season previews.

• Same, of course, for the folks at ASA. I read these every year.

• If you’re more of an audio type, Gass has been hosting 30(ish)-minute season previews on Socccerwise with a local expert (podcasters, bloggers, beat writers).

• And finally, if you haven’t made the migration to BlueSky yet, I really urge you to do so. It’s very easy to follow local coverage thanks to feeds and starter packs, like the one Ben Wright put together specifically for MLS coverage. Plus, you know, BlueSky isn’t owned by a Nazi.

1. Bet everything you have that we’ll do an “adjusted lines” show in late April.

2. *ralph wiggum voice* I’m a sportsbook!

3. I think Santi’s like an $8m-ish player, but he’s got that CFG pedigree. And in the global transfer market, that matters.