On the arrival – maybe – of MLS 4.0

The intra-league transfer market fking slaps

Put one on MLSsoccer.com yesterday, one that’s primarily a look at the tactical fallout (not really the right word but you understand what I mean) of the Lucho/Evander/da Costa purchases:

• Lucho Acosta, Evander & a new MLS frontier

The short version is that I think all these teams should be reasonably happy. For Dallas, Lucho is straight better than Alan Velasco; for Cincy, Evander’s probably a better tactical fit (and is a better emotional fit… for now) than Lucho; and for Portland, David da Costa is probably going to add more marginal value against the ball than Evander did, which is something the Timbers really need.

But the part I really want to discuss here is at the bottom.

My buddy Tutul¹ argued the point on BlueSky that the institution of the new cash transfer rule (or the “cash for player trade,” as it’s awkwardly called by MLS for what I assume are legal reasons) officially inaugurated the MLS 4.0 era. His argument – which I think is a good one – is that the hit rate of new international DP signings is at best 50%. That’s not just on fringe DPs; even the most expensive signings in league history have a pretty high failure rate².

The math, as he spelled it out:

Like the Lucho, Evander switch in the past would've resulted in both getting sold internationally & 3 teams (including FCD) buying new DP 10s. If they hit at 50%, then the league is losing 2 really good ones and expecting to gain 1.5. And would almost guaranteed to be negative in transfer spend.

Like I said, it’s a good argument. To make it even clearer, the internal cash transfer system effectively:

1. keeps more high-end talent – the type of talent people pay to see, and the type of talent that wins games – in the league, while

2. getting that talent into better situations for them to shine, and

3. keeps more money in MLS since more fees are now being paid from team-to-team instead of overseas³, and

4. limits downside risk because players like Lucho and Evander are basically sure things.

All of this, it needs to be said, drives interest as well. Nothing but wins across the board.

After thinking on his point for a few days, though, I can’t get myself to MLS 4.0 just yet. Opening up the internal transfer market will help; of that I have basically zero doubt. But it’s more of a piece with things like the U22 Initiative in terms of adding flexibility onto the already-existing roster-building infrastructure, or increasing the GAM haul from certain sales. All of these are necessary steps on the path to MLS 4.0, but even together, they’re not quite sufficient to get us there.

What will is, quite simply, more DP slots to add more spending and bring in more Evanders, Luchos and da Costas. I have no idea if that’s in the offing anytime soon, but when it eventually arrives, MLS 4.0 will come with it.

1. sorry buddy I just wanted to use the meme.

2. *laughs in Pity Martinez*

3. remember, the dominoes started falling here with the sale of Velasco for $10m, followed by the sale of Lucho for $6m, followed by the sale of Evander for $12m, followed by the purchase of da Costa for $6m. MLS, collectively, came out $4m ahead on the transfer merry-go-round.